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ProFrac Holding Corp. (ACDC)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 revenue was $501.9M, down 16% sequentially vs Q1 ($600.3M) but roughly in line with consensus ($500.0M*) and down 13% YoY vs Q2 2024 ($579.4M). Adjusted EBITDA was $78.6M (16% margin) vs $129.5M in Q1 (22%) as activity slowed and cost actions lagged timing; net loss widened to $103.5M vs $15.4M in Q1 . Revenue actual vs consensus: $501.9M vs $500.0M*; EPS actual vs consensus: -$0.4245* vs -$0.262*; EBITDA actual vs consensus: $56.0M* (SPGI EBITDA) vs $94.7M* (SPGI EBITDA) .
  • Segment performance: Stimulation Services revenue fell to $432.0M (EBITDA $51.1M; 12% margin), Proppant Production revenue rose to $77.5M (EBITDA $14.8M; 19% margin), Manufacturing revenue $55.8M (EBITDA $7.3M), Other revenue $65.0M (EBITDA $8.4M). Intercompany revenue increased in Proppant/Manufacturing, impacting margins .
  • Guidance and liquidity: 2025 CapEx guidance was cut to $175–$225M from prior $250–$300M, citing asset management-driven efficiency and market conditions. Q2-end liquidity was $108M (cash ~$26M including ~$5M at Flotek; ABL availability $87M). Subsequent August equity offering added ~$75M gross to support deleveraging and liquidity enhancement .
  • Strategic initiatives: ProPilot 2.0 automation deployed across fleets; partnership with Flotek and new gas conditioning assets integration; and post-Q2 partnership with Seismos to enable closed-loop fracturing—key tech vectors to drive efficiency and stage-level accountability .
  • Near-term setup: Management expects Stimulation Services Q3 results to decrease vs Q2 given calendar “white space,” while Proppant profitability should be similar to Q2 despite lower volumes; crews have begun returning and 2026 customer planning dialogues are robust—potential catalyst as activity rebounds (especially gas-directed) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Free cash flow improved to $54.4M from -$13.6M in Q1 as working capital reversed and CapEx fell; net cash from operations rose to $100.4M from $38.7M .
  • Proppant Production revenue increased sequentially to $77.5M despite lower volumes; efficiency gains and logistics mix supported profitability (19% margin) .
  • Technology and asset management initiatives: “We continue to invest in and develop our ProPilot automation system and have deployed ProPilot to all of our active fleets,” and ProPilot 2.0 adds horsepower optimization, load balancing, and one-click stage completions to reduce wear and improve uptime .

What Went Wrong

  • Stimulation Services saw reduced fleet count and increased “white space”; Adjusted EBITDA margin compressed from 20% (Q1) to 12% (Q2) as cost actions took effect late; segment also incurred ~$8M shortfall expenses under the Flotek supply agreement .
  • Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA fell to $78.6M from $129.5M in Q1; EBITDA margin down to 16% from 22% as commodity price decline in early April drove customer schedule reassessments .
  • Net loss widened to $103.5M vs $15.4M in Q1, driven by lower revenues, inefficiencies during redeployments, and higher other operating expenses; YoY still negative vs Q2 2024 .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$454.7 $600.3 $501.9
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$70.8 $129.5 $78.6
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)16% 22% 16%
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)$(101.7) $(15.4) $(103.5)
Net Cash from Operations ($USD Millions)$76.5 $38.7 $100.4
Capital Expenditures ($USD Millions)$63.2 $52.5 $46.5
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$54.3 $(13.6) $54.4

Segment breakdown

SegmentQ4 2024 Revenue ($M)Q4 2024 Adj. EBITDA ($M)Q1 2025 Revenue ($M)Q1 2025 Adj. EBITDA ($M)Q2 2025 Revenue ($M)Q2 2025 Adj. EBITDA ($M)
Stimulation Services$384.4 $53.6 $524.5 $104.6 $432.0 $51.1
Proppant Production$46.5 $14.2 $67.3 $18.3 $77.5 $14.8
Manufacturing$61.9 $3.0 $65.8 $4.0 $55.8 $7.3
Other$54.9 $4.4 $62.2 $7.7 $65.0 $8.4

KPIs and balance sheet

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($M)$14.8 $16.0 $26.0 (incl. ~$5M at Flotek)
Net Debt ($M)$1,124.1 $1,138.4 $1,084.0
Total Principal Amount of Debt ($M)$1,138.9 $1,154.4 $1,110.0
ABL Availability ($M)$71 $66 $87
Liquidity ($M)$81 $76 $108

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total CapEx ($)FY 2025$250–$300M (Q4 2024 outlook) $175–$225M (Q2 update) Lowered
Stimulation Services OutlookQ3 2025N/ASegment results to decrease vs Q2 (activity below trough rebound) Softened
Proppant Production OutlookQ3 2025N/AVolumes flat vs Q2 exit; profitability similar to Q2 via efficiency gains Maintained profitability
Liquidity initiatives2025N/A~$90M incremental liquidity expected through 2025 via notes and Alpine term loan amendment; deferral of leverage test to 2027 Increased flexibility

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ4 2024 (Prior-2)Q1 2025 (Prior-1)Q2 2025 (Current)Trend
AI/technology initiativesLaunched Livewire Power; investing in next-gen pumps/software ProPilot AutoFrac testing; “hit play” automation; deployment to fleets ProPilot 2.0 features (horsepower optimization, load balancing, one-click stages); IoTeX data platform; Seismos partnership post-Q2 Expanding scope and deployment
Tariffs/macroPricing stabilized; watching inflation/tariffs; budget exhaustion impacts Tariffs + OPEC+ increase pressured oil prices; operators re-evaluating Q2 activity Early-April price decline drove “white space” and lower utilization; modestly improved post-trough Headwind moderated post-trough
Regional trendsRebound in West/South Texas; Haynesville LNG tailwinds expected Favorable gas-directed outlook; Haynesville capacity 8.2–13.0M tons damp/dry Uptick more visible in gas; Permian slower; South Texas throughput improving Mix shift toward gas and South Texas
Supply chain/asset managementCentralized asset management initiative; standardization Asset management drove records in pump hours; rapid redeployment Continued capital efficiency; faster turnarounds; cost control progress Structural efficiency gains
Power generation strategyLivewire initial focus internal; plan adjacencies Internal demand first; selective external opportunities Holistic power land strategy; “accelerate access to electrons” for data centers Strategic build-out underway

Management Commentary

  • “Our ProPilot platform… is delivering transformational improvements in automated fracturing operations… deployed to all of our active fleets.” — Executive Chairman Matt Wilks
  • “With ProPilot 2.0… horsepower optimization, dual fuel optimization, interlocking load balancing, and one-click fully automated stage completions… maintaining pumps at peak performance and efficiency, while also minimizing wear and tear.” — Matt Wilks
  • “In Q2, we generated revenues of $502 million, adjusted EBITDA of $79 million and free cash flow of $54 million… results largely aligned with our May outlook as activity was negatively impacted by macro and commodity price volatility.” — Matt Wilks
  • “We now expect capital expenditures to be between $175 million and $225 million for 2025… trending in line with previously cited reductions.” — CEO Ladd Wilks
  • “Total liquidity at quarter end was approximately $108 million… we executed transactions expected to provide approximately $90 million in incremental liquidity through 2025.” — CFO Austin Harbour

Q&A Highlights

  • 2026 planning and activity mix: Engagement increasing vs Q2 trough; uptick more visible on gas than Permian oil; management sees both oil- and gas-directed activity potentially tightening markets in 2026 .
  • Electric fleets: 7 e-fleets fully utilized on long-term contracts; horsepower equivalent of nine with simul-frac—least at-risk assets in a challenging macro .
  • Fleet count trajectory: Low 30s active fleets as a “safe place” for 2025; growth contingent on returns and disciplined allocation .
  • Proppant pricing/logistics: Focus on long-term commitments, logistics and storage bundling; South Texas throughput setting records; Haynesville damp capacity expanded to 13M tons .
  • Cost actions timing: Cost reductions began mid-May but benefits lagged due to operational inefficiencies and pad delays; mitigated later in Q2 .

Estimates Context

MetricQ2 2025 ConsensusQ2 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD)$500.0M*$501.9M
Primary EPS ($USD)-$0.262*-$0.4245*
EBITDA ($USD)$94.7M*$56.0M*
  • Significant items: Revenue was a slight beat; EPS and SPGI EBITDA were misses. Note EBITDA definitions vary—company “Adjusted EBITDA” was $78.6M vs SPGI’s EBITDA actual shown above, reflecting definitional differences (non-GAAP adjustments at the company include credit losses, litigation, investment gains/losses, etc.) .
  • Consensus depth: Revenue estimates count=3; EPS estimates count=5 for Q2 2025*.
  • Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q2 underscored sensitivity to oil price shocks and customer schedule “white space,” but FCF resilience and liquidity actions de-risk near-term balance sheet; watch sustained FCF generation as activity normalizes .
  • Technology stack (ProPilot 2.0 + Seismos closed-loop) is a differentiator that can compress costs, raise uptime, and standardize execution—potential margin upside as volumes recover .
  • Mix shift toward gas-directed completions and South Texas throughput improvements should cushion activity softness in Permian; Haynesville leverage is a 2026 call option .
  • CapEx cut to $175–$225M signals disciplined capital allocation; expect stronger Adjusted EBITDA less CapEx profile through 2H if operational efficiencies persist .
  • Segment watch: Stimulation Services margins to trough further in Q3; Proppant profitability expected to hold despite lower volumes—set expectations accordingly .
  • Equity raise and term-loan amendments provide incremental liquidity and flexibility; deleveraging via future FCF remains a key narrative .
  • Estimate resets: Street may lower EBITDA and EPS near term given Q2 miss and Q3 guide-down; upside hinges on execution, gas-led recovery, and pricing stabilization (especially with tech-enabled value-add) .

Bolded beats/misses and explicit surprises:

  • Revenue: $501.9M vs $500.0M* — slight beat .
  • EPS: -$0.4245* vs -$0.262* — significant miss.
  • SPGI EBITDA: $56.0M* vs $94.7M* — significant miss; company Adjusted EBITDA $78.6M .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*